Predicting biological invasions to inform policy

Invasive alien species are a major and growing threat to people and nature. Target 6 of the Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) commits nations to reduce the introduction of INNS by 50 percent and minimize their impact. Effective biosecurity, and specifically preventing the arrival of invasive alien species, is critical to achieving Target 6. Enhancing knowledge and data flows on invasive alien species is important to inform action and policy. Reliable and open information is essential to track progress towards Target 6 of the GBF while ensuring priorisation and evaluation of action through, as an example, horizon scanning. Collaborative horizon scanning studies, combining impact assessments and expert elicitation, are used to inform biosecurity by providing predictions about which species might be the most likely to arrive and impact biodiversity and ecosystems in the future. We have applied horizon scanning to inform prioritisation of preventative actions for invasive alien species in Britain, Europe and across the UK Overseas Territories. Here I will provide an overview of the approach highlighting the need for information and the importance of effective data flows to inform horizon scanning (and for many other purposes). I will describe the ways in which we have been enhancing information flows and the outcomes from horizon scanning, specifically linking to awareness raising, early warning and rapid response to ultimately mitigate the impacts of invasive alien species. Curbing the threat of invasive alien species is urgent but achievable.